Research by a team of Oxford University engineers, led by Dr Thomas Adcock and published in the current issue of the journal, Proceedings of the Royal Society A, has introduced realism into the Scottish Government?s claims that Scotland has 25% of Europe?s potential for tidal energy generation ? which it says would amount to 14GW.
This research reports a substantial gap between the reality of the still hugely substantial generative power of the tidal streams in the Pentland Firth and these Scottish Government estimates, published on the government website.
The scientists? findings indicate the potential energy from the number of turbines that could effectively be sited in the Pentland Firth as being, at best, 1.9GW and pointing to a more likely 1GW.
As they assert, this is still a mighty resource ? capable of supplying the annual power consumption of just under half of Scotland.
This would not, of course, produce a surplus for export, as has been a major selling point of the increasingly fragile independence prospectus.
Dr Adcock carefully describes the Scottish Government?s estimates of potential output? as: ??considerably higher than what we are giving in this study.
?There?s a huge amount of tidal power there but it?s certainly not the case that Scotland will be able to export its tidal energy.?
The difference between the government?s estimates and the scientists? findings arises from the research work in calculating the maximum number of turbines that could be installed in the Pentland Firth without negatively impacting on the flow to the point where it was producing very little.
These calculations suggest that the maximum achievable output would be achieved from three rows of turbines set across the full width of the Firth ? which would block a large percentage of the channel.
The study says that this array would produce a power output that: ?would match or exceed? the wind turbines which are its competitors for investment.
A major conclusion of the study is that piecemeal installation of tidal turbines in the Pentland Firth would be counterproductive, leading to some turbines cancelling each other out.
The challenge for Scotland, in supplying this potential contribution to its own energy needs will be the management of the Pentland Firth as a single resource, with turbines arranged in a masterplan to maximise production to achieve the likely 1 GW.
If this is not done, the output will be less than the research has identified as achievable in a well designed single installation.
A key issue in achieving the necessary uniform strategic development plan for the Firth is the practice of the Crown Estate Commission of issuing to individual developers exploration licences which would later be capable of being translated into production licences.
The Commissioners have already begun leasing arrangements with developers for projects of up to 1.6GW in the Pentland Firth.
This piecemeal revenue-driven modus operandi simply cannot be allowed to cripple the potential of our major tidal energy resource.
The report suggests that another challenging aspect of the development of this resource would? be the need to store surplus energy produced in the run of Spring tides ? and feed that back in during the lesser productivity of neap tides.
The issues raised in this study are likely to have relevance in the management of tidal energy generation in other important tidal streams in Scotland ? like Argyll?s Sound of Islay.
The report of the research ? The available power from tidal stream turbines in the Pentland Firth ? which was led by Thomas Adcock with? Scott Draper, Guy T Houlsby, Alistair GL Borthwick and Sena Serhadhoglu, is online here.
Source: http://forargyll.com/2013/07/scotland-will-not-have-tidal-energy-to-export/
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