The budget deficit target for the next fiscal year has also been proposed to be kept at 5.8% of GDP, but the figure is likely to undergo some more scrutiny. DESIGN: ANAM HALEEM
ISLAMABAD:?The first phase of the formal budget making process has been completed, and the upcoming year?s proposed budget will have an outlay 18% or Rs535 billion higher than the ongoing year?s original Rs2.96 trillion budget. The increase in the budget?s size to Rs3.495 trillion is double the anticipated inflation for the next year, which is expected to clock in at 9%.
Officials of the finance ministry say that almost 90% of prior allocations will remain unchanged, given the nature of spending by the government. These allocations include interest payments, which will take up an estimated Rs1.15 trillion; defence expenditures, which will consume another Rs627 billion (excluding a Rs200 billion contingent grant); running the civil government, which will require Rs278 billion; and pension bills, which will take up Rs155 billion. A final decision still remains to be taken, however, on the amount of subsidies to be extended to the power sector and some allocations under other heads.
An amount of Rs364 billion has been proposed to cover power subsidies, but the figure may change depending on whether Pakistan enters into a loan arrangement with the International Monetary Fund or not, officials added.
The budget deficit target for the next fiscal year has also been proposed to be kept at 5.8% of GDP, but the figure is likely to undergo some more scrutiny.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Mir Hazar Khan Khoso has issued his own guidelines for the preparation of next fiscal year?s budget. Khoso has asked the Ministry of Finance that the welfare of the masses be given priority and the general public not be subjected to any undue burden. The prime minister also emphasised the need to curtail expenditures and exercise austerity in order to ensure judicious utilisation of public funds.
The guidelines have been forwarded to the Ministry of Finance, which is the apex authority in the midst of all national budgeting activity. The ministry has reportedly already made considerable progress after consultations with relevant stakeholders, and may find little room to accommodate the premier?s directives. It says it may have to start from scratch if the budgeting exercise is to take the recommended bent, raising the probability that the budget will be delayed.
So far, the Priorities Committee ? an inter-ministerial body of economic ministries ? has finalised the proposals for allocation of current and development expenditures of all 68 government departments and institutional bodies. The committee finalised the budget proposals within the parameters of the Rs3.495 trillion budget, which further suggests there will be little room for changes.
Discussions on revenue measures, the other major component of the budget, are yet to commence because of uncertainty and confusion in the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR). Even the official note forwarded by the PM House is silent on the issue.
A Rs2.675 trillion tax target has been proposed, but the figure is subject to change due to a massive anticipated shortfall in revenue collection under this year?s target of Rs2.381 trillion.
FBR officials say that until the authority is clear as to what extent it will be able to achieve the current year?s targets, it will not be able to take decisions on new revenue measures.
Ongoing changes and major reshuffling at the top tier in the FBR are another major reason hindering the tax machinery?s efforts in initiating serious work on revenue collection, according to a senior official of the FBR.
Last week, newly-appointed FBR Chairman Ansar Javed removed Muhamad Raza Baqir and appointed Mustafa Ashraf as a new member. However, Baqir resumed charge as Member Inland Revenue Operations on Thursday, after the higher judiciary suspended his transfer orders.
In the next phase of the exercise, the Annual Plan Coordination Committee is expected to meet in the first week of May to endorse the development expenditure ceilings set for different ministries, besides also finalising macroeconomic projects which will later be approved by the National Economic Council by the end of the same month.
Published in The Express Tribune, April 26th, 2013.
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